Tim Coughlin's Blog

What will the iPhone do for OS X Market Share?

While reading the news of the eagerly anticipated iPhone a thought came to me. As has been reiterated this week, the iPhone will be running a full version of the OS X operating system.

Now as we all know the OS market share stats lean heavily towards Microsoft because they count all the Windows installations on cash points, kiosks and the like.

Therefore, surely all sales of the iPhone will contribute to the OS X tally. If this iPhone sells in the numbers expected then this will start dragging up the market share on its own. Now imagine if the next gen stand alone iPod with touch screen also ships with OS X. I look forward to seeing those official stats start swinging in Apple's favour. The headlines alone will be great PR for the company.

Apple Should Release the iPod phone Based on VoIP

I was reading this article over at Slashdot ( http://slashdot.org/~Eugenia%20Loli/journal/125773 ) after the author sent me her link and it got me thinking. Apple should build a VoIP based phone and market it as a convergence device with the iPod. This would be a fantastic idea and it really fits the bill as far as Apple’s typical business practices go.

This is an emerging market in which Apple could be a big fish and essentially take control as it did with the iPod and portable music. As it stands there are only a couple of players, the main one being Skype which does not have the marketing power or user base that Apple garners. It is also a market with enormous growth potential and one which allows Apple to do an end run around the mobile phone networks, without actually competing with them. As a byproduct, with the iPod phone having WiFi built in, it would allow for wireless music downloading at no extra cost and the use of said music as ringtones, a massive market on its own among the younger age groups.

I envision an iPod nano style device but slightly thicker, including 1Gb of storage (is this where the iPod shuffle 1Gb has disappeared?), WiFi, Bluetooth 2.0 (wireless headphones and mic combo) and all the functionality the iPod already has. As for input I would either see a ring of buttons (think Nokia 3650) or maybe just the iPod clickwheel, using the numbers already saved by Address book and a more rudimentary input for new numbers.

By marketing this device under the iPod brand Apple would gain a number of advantages. The first would be the halo effect the name has, getting it a great deal of press and recognition among consumers. The second would be that people would not expect the handset to be subsidized as they do with phones, because its an iPod ... right. Last, it could keep the form factor the iPod already uses, giving it a cool and clean look when compared to most other handsets.

This would be an ideal time for a product launch like this with the density of WiFi ever increasing in cities and Google well on the way to building free WiFi networks all over the shop. Because many homes also have WiFi now it kicks the land line phone operators into touch too. Admittedly WiFi coverage is nowhere near that of the cell phone networks as it stands, but thats what makes this plan so perfect. Because this would be an iPod, Apple can plug this as its primary use. VoIP could be a cool extra like video or photo .. for now. But in 5 years WiMax will be as popular as WiFi now but the coverage will be exponentially larger. By then all iPods will have this functionality with their wireless headsets and Apple would truly be placed to take the telecommunications industry by storm.

Intel Based Macs Likely @ Macworld? (Intel to Ship 1 million 'Core Duo' Chips in 3 Weeks)

This is only a short entry. I was reading the notes from endgaget of the Intel Keynote at CES today. In it naturally they refer to the Core Duo, widely expected to be the chip which makes it into Apple’s first Intel computers. About 1/4 way down the article is the quote:

"Core Duo is our first new brand since Pentium.  It's about three times smaller than Pentium, about the size of a dime .. it is the world's lowest power dual-core processor.  We'll ship the millionth Core Duo in three weeks."

Now, I am not that familiar with how many chips Intel expects to sell each month, but a million of these relatively high end chips available in three weeks suggests some volume customers. People like Dell have only their highest spec laptop shipping with the chip (Inspiron E1705) and I am sure the other big manufacturers are the same. Is this an indication that Apple will be getting quite a number of these chips? They would be a volume customer as it is expected the chip will make it into all the portable line up, the Mac mini and possibly the iMac too.

Anyone with more insight into whether this number could hold any significance please let me know below. I may be way off with this assumption and the number of 1 million chips may in fact serve to discredit ideas of an Intel intro at Macworld. Anyway, 4 days and counting!

iWeb to form Part of iLife ‘06? What is the Mystery App?

Apple briefly had a link to iLife ‘06 posted on its website earlier today which indicated the existence of a new App called iWeb. Since its discovery the website has reverted to showing the current iLife suite and any reference to iWeb has disappeared.

It is no surprise that iLife ‘06 will be released this year, after all there has been a new version each year for a bit now. I was wondering what Apple would add to the bundle this time around to make it a must have purchase for the masses. After all, a revision to the current programs would be nice, but it is questionable if it would be compelling enough to garner enough interest for most iLife ‘05 users to upgrade. So could iWeb be the next killer app getting us all reaching for our wallets?

The question is, if indeed iWeb does exist, what functionality it would offer. The name itself in non-specific enough to leave the potential field of operation wide open. However, its easy to speculate where Apple could be going with this app. So here is a possible feature list, certainly features I would like to see included:

1) A web design tool : I would see this as a basic design tool, offering similar options to those I have available on the web based client for this Typepad account. It is likely that there will be a number of pre designed templates a la Pages, which can then be tweaked with colours and fonts. Once sorted, the software will link to a .Mac account or other webspace for publishing. This would encompass all the usual features such as blogging and photo uploading. It would be nice to have the feature of adding iTunes links built in (with the ability to make some money off being an affilate) but this seems unlikely.

2) A podcast delivery tool: this is quite likely as podcasts have become a large part of the iTunes experience for many and Garage band already has the functionality to create said podcasts. This is a feature I would see being streamlined in garageband itself to make it more intuitive to achieve, and to allow the two apps to talk together easily.

3) A vidcast delivery tool: as above but linking to iMovie instead. This could be important for Apple as vidcasts are ideal content for the iPod, being about the right length and with quality of video not being a major concern.

Options 2 and 3 would have seamless integration with iTunes, make the process of uplading your work even easier.

4) A .Mac frontend: I am not a .Mac subscriber myself so I am not familiar with the way the accounts currently work. I do often hear that .Mac is underwhelming to say the least, so maybe iWeb will become the software which will change all this around, linking the above three functions as well as the iCal and Address book functionality into one easy to use package.

I’m sure there are other possible uses as well. If anyone has any interesting thoughts, post them below. Anyway, its not long before we find out if this is a reality or not. MW is just around the corner!

Apple Being Left out in the Cold by Partners

Over the last few weeks Apple has been left increasingly isolated in the music business. First Motorola decided to stop selling an iTunes compatible phone in favour of its own service. Then, this week HP has broken off all ties to the company, replacing iTunes on its PCs with Real’s music service. The latter decision was expected following HP’s decision to stop selling their own branded iPod devices after it showed very disappointing sales.

The question is, what difference will this make in the long run. The less important of the two announcements is HPs. The key to this business as it stands is the iPod and irrespective of what ships on people’s PCs as the default music player iTunes will prevail because ‘iPod people’ will install it themselves. It may make a very minor difference to Apple by preventing people who do not use the iPod discovering iTunes as a way of consuming music. This market is not particularly important though, because the main revenue stream in the business is the iPod itself, not the music sold through iTunes (Apple set it up this way because they know they are the only end to end provider of music services, thereby shafting all the other companies trying to enter the market).

The fact Moto has broken ties is more troubling. I say this because it is impossible to ignore that people will increasingly want to listen to music through their mobile, either because they do not want to carry two devices or because they cannot afford to buy both (think the younger end of the market). However, Apple has the option of making this news irrelevant, should they choose to release their own iPhone (a possible reason for the obviously rocky relationship Moto and Apple have had over the iTunes phone since the outset). The key here would be find a mobile carrier who would work with you on a phone allowing iTunes music to be used as ringtones - admittedly a difficult sell. The second possibility would be for Apple to sell the handset at full cost as part of the iPod family, and make it possible to accept sim cards from any of the networks. The latter would work here in the UK I believe, but I am not sure if this is viable in the US where it seems your mobile networks are very different.

Either way Apple is going to have to be careful that it does not become too isolated, because in the end the risk is Microsoft will win through a war of attrition.

Musings on the iTunes Movie Store

Looking at recent developments I believe I can guess at where Apple will go with the iTunes Movie Store. I’m not an insider however and this is all purely speculation, but it would make sense from many viewpoints.

This week we heard that Apple upgraded the bandwidth on .Mac accounts to 1Tb. 1Tb, thats huge! So the question to ask would be what could possibly need that kind of bandwidth? The natural answer is that in the near future Apple will be pushing video streams through broadband into peoples’ homes. This is the natural conclusion which everyone is coming to, but it leaves one significant question. How will this link in with the iPod. One assumes that because the video is streamed it will not be stored locally on a users computer thereby leaving the iPod out of the loop.

At the same time however, it does answer the critics questions about the quality of the video Apple is offering. With a streaming service in place, using h.264, Apple could significantly up the quality of the video to the extent it would look great on large wide screen TVs. This is critical in my view, as quite frankly the downloads available currently are fine for the iPod, but thats about it.

This leads me to believe Apple will offer a dual video service.

The first element will indeed be a high quality video streaming subscription service coupled with an upgraded Mac mini unit, or more likely an Airport express : video. I believe that both of these products will appear, but I think an upgraded Airport will be first. The main reason for this is that it will be a hard sell if people have to buy a computer to gain access to the videos. I see more opportunity for Apple if they give away a small unit to plug into the TV with every subscription, using their computer as the main control point. The Mac was always meant to be the digital hub after all.

The second element will be a download service implemented as it is currently in the US, providing the iPod link. This will probably not encompass feature length movies, but will instead be a vehicle for TV shows and music videos. I believe that the movie studios are reluctant to allow users to download movies onto local storage because of their fear of piracy. It also explains the relatively poor battery life for video playback on the current iPod. The 30Gb would barely show a whole movie. It does however comfortably play back a few music videos and a TV show or two, with some battery spare for music.

Between these two services Apple would have all the bases covered. People will watch movies, TV shows and music videos on their TVs, wirelessly streamed from their computer. Then, should they want to purchase TVs shows or music videos they could transfer them to the iPod and run.

The only question remaining is, will the streaming video service include the TV shows and music videos currently available to buy individually? My guess is that TV shows will be available to buy or stream, movies only to stream, and music videos only to buy. We shall see. Anyways, those are my thoughts, let me know what you think.

[UPDATE]
As pointed out by xavier below (thanks!) it has recently been stated that the .Mac bandwidth upgrade was a mistake. ( http://www.macfixit.com/article.php?story=20060103085453163 ). It could be that Apple is trying to build up hype for Macworld with a stunt to spark speculation in the media. Any ideas?

Why Its Legal to Rip DVDs and Download Movies ... Well Sometimes.

I’m not a lawyer so please forgive me of any of these comments are off the mark. Feel free to correct me at the bottom of the page.

Anyway, the basis of this argument is that as it stands it remains legal to record any TV show onto VHS, DVD or DVR. This was contested back in the days of betamax (Sony’s losing technology in the race with VHS), where it was ruled legal to record provided the recording was only for personal use.

Taking this a little further, we can understand how the latest TivoToGo offering can come about. This service allows you to record shows you want from the TV, transfer them to your computer and finally re-encode them so they are suitable to be played on the iPod or PSP. At no point along this chain is the premise that the recordings could be for personal use only broken.

This is where I start to get into deep and rather murky waters. If we then take another look at what is allowed here, it seems that after a show or film has been broadcast on network television it has become a part of the public domain. This would have been less true in the days of VHS where you had to remember to set the timer or you wouldn’t have the program recorded. But now with products like Tivo, it even records shows that you didn’t ask it to. And with very quick few clicks you can have it record all your favorite shows without missing a beat. So under these circumstances are we not allowed to own a digital copy of any show or film which has been broadcast, provided it is for personal use?

The natural progression of this argument is to say then, why can’t i rent a DVD and rip it, or download TV shows from the internet provided it has been shown on network television. I mean I could have recorded it when it was shown and so owned a legal digital copy of the show on my iPod. How does it make any difference how those bits of data appeared on my device? Provided I do not share the files with others I am not breaking my original agreement.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not naive. I do realise that the MPAA et al have made other steps in my process illegal, for example the act of decoding the content of a DVD itself. I can’t think of any measures yet in place which criminalizes the downloading of this content from p2p networks however though with movies from DVD, at some point someone has broken the law.

This is a very superficial look based on my limited understanding of the legalities in the area. It is food for thought though ...

Review of the New 5G iPod ‘video’.

I have owned the new iPod ‘video’ for the last few weeks and I thought I would share my experiences of the product. I won’t pretend I can compete with the excellent review at ilounge.com, but nonetheless I am going to push on with my feelings about the newest addition to the iPod family.

First and foremost the iPod remains a product dedicated to the listening and enjoyment of music. In this respect it differentiates itself little over its predecessors, gaining a few relatively small advantages. The first of these is that with the increase in screen size, the album art can be viewed better than before. Secondly there are reports that this latest update to the iPod ushers in a new gold standard for iPod audio quality only matched by the shuffle. Having owned a 3G, 4G, nano, shuffle and 5G I can say that subjectively there is very little difference to be heard between all these iPods. This is especially true if using the supplied (and as usual disappointing) ear buds. Worth mentioning is that this iPod does seem to get rid of the problem of hard drive ‘static’ noise when skipping between tracks. I never really found this to be an issue but I know it was to some, so its a good thing it has finally been banished.

Another area in which this iPod picks up the baton of its predecessor is in that of photo functionality. In this area the iPod has picked up a couple of improvements. The most obvious of these is that a series of transitions have been added that were not previously available, including the popular ‘page flip’ and ‘cube’. Admittedly this is just eye candy, but it is pretty cool especially when outputted to a TV. The second improvement again relates to the increased screen size and quality. The pictures on the built in screen look excellent as do the transitions, making the experience of sharing pictures on the iPod much more viable than in the previous model.

Obviously there is one significant feature which I have not mentioned as yet. This new iPod is capable of playing video, both on its built in screen and on a connected TV. This is big news, and I think a lot more of this will be made in both future versions of the iPod and iTunes. As it stands this feature is an adjunct to the iPod as a music player, and is not intended to make the iPod a true multimedia platform .... not yet anyway.
The first experience I had with video was with downloading the music video ‘Nelly - Ride Wit Me’ from the iTMS for the princely sum of £1.89. Before I go on I will register my irritation that the UK is paying more than any other country for the services on the iTMS. Indeed the gap has widened with video content, and I dread to think what we will be charged when TV shows make it onto out store. That aside, the download was painless enough and the video transferred to my iPod with no problems.
The first thing I noticed when I played the video was that it was in a widescreen format, not the native 320x240 resolution of the iPod screen. Because of this, the display size was effectively halved making the video look quite tiny. Here we have the first problem that the iPod is going to face in the future. All TVs and almost all Macs now ship with a widescreen display. If Apple is going to make a serious play for multimedia distribution it is going to have to supply all of its video in widescreen, but in doing so it is going to create a problem for iPod users. It attempts to rectify the issue by making a widescreen on/off option available in the ‘video settings’ screen. This is not ideal however, because you of course loose a block of video from either side of the original. I don’t see an easy resolution to this presenting itself, but its not my problem to solve! Ignoring this the quality of this first video purchase was not bad at all. It was smooth and the colors were good. There was evidence in the picture that it was heavily compressed however, and so in truth I was a little disappointed.
The story does not end there however. The iPod does not only support content from the iTMS, but can play any file provided it is converted to the correct format using Quicktime (painfully slow) or any other appropriate software. The iPod is commonly quoted as supporting video up to a resolution of 320x240 for h.264 and 480x480 for Mpeg4, but this is not actually true, at least not regarding Mpeg4. Using Handbrake I ripped a copy of Love Actually I had on DVD to a resolution of 704x304 . This played smoothly on the iPod, and more importantly when outputted to a TV screen it looked excellent. From a relatively near sofa I could not tell the difference between it and the dvd (using a 30” widescreen).
When taking this into account the iPod becomes a more attractive product from a video perspective. It will indeed be a pain converting content to put on the device, but it is important that it can be done to a quality which by all accounts is rather good. I would also speculate that this could be the beginning of a new format to sweep the Bittorrent and Kazza networks, iPod ready, high quality files. If this comes to pass, Apple’s addition of TV shows to the iTMS could be significantly undermined, something I am not bothered about personally given the excessive pricing (I rather suspect the blame for this lies with the content providers rather than Apple).

The new iPod carries a few more surprises and features which deserve a mention. This the the first large iPod the come in plain black (the U2 iPod had a red clickwheel), and I think this is a welcome addition to the line up. I myself opted for the black because in my opinion video looks better on the screen with a dark surround.
Sadly the iPod no longer supports firewire. I believe this decision was taken because the removal of firewire allows hardware to be taken out of the iPod making it both smaller and cheaper. However, it is a pain the backside for users who do not have USB 2.0 on their computers, as i don’t on my first generation 12” powerbook. I would say that using USB 1.0 is not as dire as some people make out and unless you extensively use the iPod as an external drive there should not be a problem. I have found it an irritation, nothing more.
A few extras have been made to the software, which are nice though none of them are groundbreaking. They are the addition of multiple time-zone clocks, a stopwatch and a screen lock. I can’t say that I have made use of any of them but it is possible that they will be useful to other people, and their inclusion is certainly no cause for complaint.
A couple of other irritations have crept in to this update to the iPod. The first, one which could be quite significant to some people, is the omission of the peripheral port on the top of the device. I am not sure why Apple would drop this, but it kills support for quite a number of devices including the iTrip. Second is that on many of units the battery indicator is very inaccurate. I have found that despite a full charge the iPod can show my remaining battery to be in the red. On using the device however, the battery DOES perform to specifications and I typically get over 14 hours of playback from the 30Gb model. This software glitch will hopefully be remedied in a future firmware update but no further information on the issue has been forthcoming.
I will end by commenting on the recent ‘screen scratching’ stories. In my experience this iPod is equally susceptible to scratching as previous models and I would recommend using the included pouch to protect the device.

Overall I am very happy with the new iPod and I think it offers a worthwhile upgrade to users of the 4G iPod including the photo version. The main benefits are the great quality screen, the larger capacity for the same price and the inclusion of embryonic video support. The cons are the removal of firewire support and peripheral connector, and the dodgy battery indicator.

The Mac is Not Apple's Past, its as Important as the iPod to the Future. (Response to Jon Stokes at Ars Technica).

I’m going to make this one relatively short and sweet, I just felt the need to say something about the ‘interesting’ ideas coming from Jon "Hannibal" Stokes over at Ars Technica. He has been exploring the break up between Apple and IBM, and discussing the future of Apple. In these musings he comes to the conclusion that the Mac is the past and the “post-PC gadget (as exemplified by the iPod)” is the future. And yes, I did read the cute disclaimer the the bottom about how his prediction is not a death knell, merely a statement that the iPod and its yet to be released brethren is the future. But this is just an escape clause to prevent a load of Mac ‘zealots’ flaming him and filling up his inbox.

But here is the thing. The iPod and the Mac are totally and utterly separate devices, with no overlap at all. None. Nope, not even a teensy bit. So unless the argument is that the iPod will some day replace the Mac, or even if it is that the iPod will become a more important part of Apple in the future, the argument is wrong.

I have no doubt that Steve Jobs wants to own all digital media distribution, music, video, hell even maybe literature as e-books some day. The iPod has given him the foot in the door and he is not going to let go easily. Especially not if, as could reasonably assumed, Microsoft would take the market without Apple’s ongoing presence. And I see that this could lead to an argument which assumes that the Mac will stay fairly static, while the iPod and its brethren financially dwarf the Mac.

But here’s the thing, the Mac is Steve Jobs baby. It has been the core of Apple for almost its entire life. It seems to me that SJ is planning a full out assault on the media production world, and will use the success to carry the Mac along with it. The iPod halo effect is well documented, and I believe its evidence can be seen in the latest quarterly earnings. I also believe that iPod sales will have to start to plateau. In fact it really is inevitable the the demand for the iPod will slow, as there can only be a finite number of people who actually want one, no matter how good the iPod is.

Which brings me onto my point really. The market for the Mac is potentially infinitesimally larger than the iPod and probably any successor that could follow. And Apple is applying and equal amount of strategic import to the Mac, though they may be keeping rather quieter about it than with iPod/iTMS. The recent announcement of a shift to Intel is a big an indication as there could be to say; Microsoft, we’re coming after you. If SJ and the Apple team have their way, in 20 years time they will hold a significant portion of both the PC world, and the online media distribution networks. But neither will significantly outweigh the other, and it is foolish to say that the Mac as a chapter in Apple’s history is coming to and end.

As they say, only time will tell.

iPod. The Radio of The Future?

After the latest update to iTunes, it can’t have escaped anyone that Podcasting has now become mainstream. I must admit that I am fairly new to the world of Podcasting myself, having only started using iPodderX about 4 months ago. The big question that Apple’s move poses is, will the iPod become the radio of the 21st century? Since its inception many would argue that the iPod was in fact just that, a radio where the songs were a collection of your own personal greatest hits, without the inconvenience of adverts and moronic DJs interrupting with banal irrelevant conversation. But the flaw in this argument was that the iPod could not easily cater for spoken word content, audiobooks excepted of course. Now, this final barrier has been lifted.

So what is out there at the moment? Well, I would have to say that it is a fairly hit and miss rag bag of around 7000 amateur and some more professional offerings. As it stands, I think traditional radio probably has some mileage left in it.

Before I go on, I would like to mention what is by far my favorite podcast at the moment. If anyone reading this is interested in wine, I would strongly recommend they give ‘Grape Radio’ a try. I have been a listener since their first show, and they present a great 30 minute each week, in which they interview some very interesting people in the trade, and talk about some of their favorite wines. They can be found by going to www.graperadio.com or searching for ‘Grape Radio’ in iTunes podcast directory.

Anyway, back to the topic at hand. One of the interesting things I noticed at the podcast directory is that some of the larger news corporations and broadcasters are starting to get in on the action, not least of which is the BBC. I remember, quite some time ago now, I sent an e-mail to someone at the Beeb imploring them to make their shows available for download, rather then just streams on the website. Maybe someone over there listened. Anyway, looking forward a few months it would not surprise me if we started seeing more content from big sources being made available.

One of the best things about podcasting in its current state is that it is free. I fear that as more mainstream broadcasters get in on the action, we will start to see charges being made for the downloads. It is clear that this could be implemented at the flick of a switch on iTunes, as the whole Podcast directory is integrated into the current infrastructure of the iTunes Music Store. Quite what effect this would have I am not sure. One thing I do know is that if someone gets greedy, it will kill the momentum in growth we are seeing at the moment. At the same time however, it may mean we start to see some real top quality programs being made available.

If we assume that at some point we will start paying for certain podcasts, the question is then; will this be an a la carte payment scheme as we see currently in the iTMS, or will the long fabled feature of a subscription model rear its head? It opens up an intriguing series of possibilities.

First, it could be that there will be a variety of models employed. Maybe there will be a podcast only subscription fee, leaving the music side of things as they are today. Maybe, there will be a tiered subscription model, with an option to include an all you can eat music service as well as a podcast only model. Or it could be that the podcasters will be free to set their own pricing, some remaining free, some charging varying amounts, probably depending on the quality of the content.

There is one possibility which i find much more interesting that all of these however. We might see a hybrid version of ‘music radio’ and an all you can eat subscription model of music downloads. One of the greatest arguments against subscription models is that there is just no point in having that much choice. You know what you like, but it would take forever to soft through the million or so songs to actually find good songs, and most people do not have that kind of time. But what if you have BBC Radio 1 DJs running a daily or weekly show, where they essentially build a playlist which then becomes their radio show? You subscribe to it as a podcast, but the twist is as you are listening, you find a song you like and you then pay for the permanent download. Many people used to find what music they liked by listening to the radio, this way it is made very easy to then obtain the music you like, while someone else does the hard work finding the gems in the million song online catalogues.

Now it may be that some kind of system already exists in the subscription stores, which is similar to this concept. I wouldn’t know. I have never used one because none are Mac compatible. I also remember hearing rumors that people were thinking of implementing a system like this into digital radio. But you can bet that Apple’s implementation would be so elegant it would put any other to shame. Plus it would all be iPod compatible, and quite frankly if its not, what’s the point in it existing?

I see an interesting future in podcasting, and I see no reason why in time it could not eventually supplant radio. It won’t be for a while yet however. All this can only serve to increase the foothold iPod has in the market, making it an ever more compelling product.