What will the iPhone do for OS X Market Share?

While reading the news of the eagerly anticipated iPhone a thought came to me. As has been reiterated this week, the iPhone will be running a full version of the OS X operating system.

Now as we all know the OS market share stats lean heavily towards Microsoft because they count all the Windows installations on cash points, kiosks and the like.

Therefore, surely all sales of the iPhone will contribute to the OS X tally. If this iPhone sells in the numbers expected then this will start dragging up the market share on its own. Now imagine if the next gen stand alone iPod with touch screen also ships with OS X. I look forward to seeing those official stats start swinging in Apple's favour. The headlines alone will be great PR for the company.

Comments

[Peri]

You write very well.

[cdkivzntwv]

world series of poker cheat closed for ps2

[Chuck Cribbs]

This is where I think it is more important to look at web browser market share. It tells you who is using their computer, as Tim suggested. But the whole thing is silly, really. I have a 6-year-old iMac at home still running every day. It's unfair to say that counts as only one sale, when a PC probably was tossed and another purchased during those six years. Does that count as two PCs purchased? Yes. How ridiculous is that when my Mac lasted longer? I think it is better to track what is actually being used, and the only real way of knowing is by using web browser stats.

[David H Dennis]

Lefty has a good point and I'd agree.

However, it's interesting to note that Apple's sales projections for the iPhone mean that it will have a larger market share than all of Windows Mobile. Apple expects to get about 10% of smartphone market share (since smartphones are about 10% of the overall market) and Windows Mobile only has about 6% of that market, with the bulk (over 60%) owned by Symbian [Nokia].

D

[Louis Wheeler]

As you may know, there are lies, damned lies and statistics. I have never seen the various people who promote market share statistics to break them down into market groups-- consumer, enterprise, servers, mainframe, etc. Nor do we see the "mean time to replacement" statistics for these groups either, even though this has a huge impact on market share.

Apple only competes in a few computer areas, yet it is compared to e-waste throwaway computers, enterprise computers, handsets, phones, PDA's etc. The Mac has a long life expectancy, so the recently high Apple sales could have more impact in the future on market share than is being accorded it.

The Wintel/ Macintosh market share statistics are so mushy that its like Mazda cars being compared to the entire automotive market including Peterbilt tractor trailer rigs. How meaningful are the statistics? Not very. Mostly, the statistics act as a form of FUD; it implies that big, powerful and rich equates to good, flexible and usable. Not so.

Furthermore, the statistics can hide the impact of what Apple is doing today. Can we tell from them of how much Apple's recent high sales growth is impacting different markets. No. Are those sales mostly to consumers? I assume so, but do the sale figures tell us that? No. None of the figures that I've seen quoted command much authority; when you look into them the more they look like guesswork.

The Apple community doesn't care much about the statistics. It is the Wintel fanbois who tout them as a means to discount any pro Macintosh enthusiasm. That enthusiasm, in recent years, has had a real basis. Apple is putting out superbly designed computers at comparable prices to Dell and Mac OSX is on a roll. Vista is a joke that would have not compared well to Panther 10.3. And Leopard 10.5 will be out in four to five months.

Let the MS fanbois crow their statistics. The IBM and MS FUD is losing its impact. Wintel is boring, boring, boring. The consumers will understand Apple's value. That is why Apple's sales have been increasing.

Don't confuse the terrain with the map; don't confuse what has has been with what can be. Statistics only look at past history. Sometimes, they can show trends but only if the statistics are relevant and specific. The Wintel /Macintosh market share statistics are anything but.

[Neil Anderson]

And the iPhone will work on Windows computers through iTunes.

[R Boylin]

You forgot to mention AppleTV as well. It's much closer to a full implementation of OS X than the iPhone. While consumerdevices are a version of computers, counting them alongside traditional forms is misleading.

What Apple's doing is leveraging OS X, not competing with Microsoft. As the brand becomes more entranched in people's lives they will be more comfortable purchasing a Mac. The collegate Mac use is growing as a result of iPod's success. These graduates will more likely be frustrated using corporate PCs.

[TIm Coughlin]

I agree with your sentiment entirely.

However, the fact remains that this is not how the stats are compiled. So the point I was making remains.

[Lefty]

Do we really want to start counting 'operating systems in use' for PC percentage use statistics?

Do you really want every Windows Mobile PC phone counted? Apple's percent numbers would then plummet.

How about a purest survey, as in every COMPUTER that AN ACTUAL PERSON uses WITH A KEYBOARD & MOUSE. Y’know, as in PERSONAL computer. Isn't THIS the statistic that we all want to know? No PC servers, kiosks, cash registers, automated systems, etc. No, only those computers that an actual person uses, at least once a week. Ask the Microsoft shills to tally that kind of statistic and they’ll barf!