I’m going to make this one relatively short and sweet, I just felt the need to say something about the ‘interesting’ ideas coming from Jon "Hannibal" Stokes over at Ars Technica. He has been exploring the break up between Apple and IBM, and discussing the future of Apple. In these musings he comes to the conclusion that the Mac is the past and the “post-PC gadget (as exemplified by the iPod)” is the future. And yes, I did read the cute disclaimer the the bottom about how his prediction is not a death knell, merely a statement that the iPod and its yet to be released brethren is the future. But this is just an escape clause to prevent a load of Mac ‘zealots’ flaming him and filling up his inbox.
But here is the thing. The iPod and the Mac are totally and utterly separate devices, with no overlap at all. None. Nope, not even a teensy bit. So unless the argument is that the iPod will some day replace the Mac, or even if it is that the iPod will become a more important part of Apple in the future, the argument is wrong.
I have no doubt that Steve Jobs wants to own all digital media distribution, music, video, hell even maybe literature as e-books some day. The iPod has given him the foot in the door and he is not going to let go easily. Especially not if, as could reasonably assumed, Microsoft would take the market without Apple’s ongoing presence. And I see that this could lead to an argument which assumes that the Mac will stay fairly static, while the iPod and its brethren financially dwarf the Mac.
But here’s the thing, the Mac is Steve Jobs baby. It has been the core of Apple for almost its entire life. It seems to me that SJ is planning a full out assault on the media production world, and will use the success to carry the Mac along with it. The iPod halo effect is well documented, and I believe its evidence can be seen in the latest quarterly earnings. I also believe that iPod sales will have to start to plateau. In fact it really is inevitable the the demand for the iPod will slow, as there can only be a finite number of people who actually want one, no matter how good the iPod is.
Which brings me onto my point really. The market for the Mac is potentially infinitesimally larger than the iPod and probably any successor that could follow. And Apple is applying and equal amount of strategic import to the Mac, though they may be keeping rather quieter about it than with iPod/iTMS. The recent announcement of a shift to Intel is a big an indication as there could be to say; Microsoft, we’re coming after you. If SJ and the Apple team have their way, in 20 years time they will hold a significant portion of both the PC world, and the online media distribution networks. But neither will significantly outweigh the other, and it is foolish to say that the Mac as a chapter in Apple’s history is coming to and end.
As they say, only time will tell.
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