Tim Coughlin's Blog

The Mac is Not Apple's Past, its as Important as the iPod to the Future. (Response to Jon Stokes at Ars Technica).

I’m going to make this one relatively short and sweet, I just felt the need to say something about the ‘interesting’ ideas coming from Jon "Hannibal" Stokes over at Ars Technica. He has been exploring the break up between Apple and IBM, and discussing the future of Apple. In these musings he comes to the conclusion that the Mac is the past and the “post-PC gadget (as exemplified by the iPod)” is the future. And yes, I did read the cute disclaimer the the bottom about how his prediction is not a death knell, merely a statement that the iPod and its yet to be released brethren is the future. But this is just an escape clause to prevent a load of Mac ‘zealots’ flaming him and filling up his inbox.

But here is the thing. The iPod and the Mac are totally and utterly separate devices, with no overlap at all. None. Nope, not even a teensy bit. So unless the argument is that the iPod will some day replace the Mac, or even if it is that the iPod will become a more important part of Apple in the future, the argument is wrong.

I have no doubt that Steve Jobs wants to own all digital media distribution, music, video, hell even maybe literature as e-books some day. The iPod has given him the foot in the door and he is not going to let go easily. Especially not if, as could reasonably assumed, Microsoft would take the market without Apple’s ongoing presence. And I see that this could lead to an argument which assumes that the Mac will stay fairly static, while the iPod and its brethren financially dwarf the Mac.

But here’s the thing, the Mac is Steve Jobs baby. It has been the core of Apple for almost its entire life. It seems to me that SJ is planning a full out assault on the media production world, and will use the success to carry the Mac along with it. The iPod halo effect is well documented, and I believe its evidence can be seen in the latest quarterly earnings. I also believe that iPod sales will have to start to plateau. In fact it really is inevitable the the demand for the iPod will slow, as there can only be a finite number of people who actually want one, no matter how good the iPod is.

Which brings me onto my point really. The market for the Mac is potentially infinitesimally larger than the iPod and probably any successor that could follow. And Apple is applying and equal amount of strategic import to the Mac, though they may be keeping rather quieter about it than with iPod/iTMS. The recent announcement of a shift to Intel is a big an indication as there could be to say; Microsoft, we’re coming after you. If SJ and the Apple team have their way, in 20 years time they will hold a significant portion of both the PC world, and the online media distribution networks. But neither will significantly outweigh the other, and it is foolish to say that the Mac as a chapter in Apple’s history is coming to and end.

As they say, only time will tell.

iPod. The Radio of The Future?

After the latest update to iTunes, it can’t have escaped anyone that Podcasting has now become mainstream. I must admit that I am fairly new to the world of Podcasting myself, having only started using iPodderX about 4 months ago. The big question that Apple’s move poses is, will the iPod become the radio of the 21st century? Since its inception many would argue that the iPod was in fact just that, a radio where the songs were a collection of your own personal greatest hits, without the inconvenience of adverts and moronic DJs interrupting with banal irrelevant conversation. But the flaw in this argument was that the iPod could not easily cater for spoken word content, audiobooks excepted of course. Now, this final barrier has been lifted.

So what is out there at the moment? Well, I would have to say that it is a fairly hit and miss rag bag of around 7000 amateur and some more professional offerings. As it stands, I think traditional radio probably has some mileage left in it.

Before I go on, I would like to mention what is by far my favorite podcast at the moment. If anyone reading this is interested in wine, I would strongly recommend they give ‘Grape Radio’ a try. I have been a listener since their first show, and they present a great 30 minute each week, in which they interview some very interesting people in the trade, and talk about some of their favorite wines. They can be found by going to www.graperadio.com or searching for ‘Grape Radio’ in iTunes podcast directory.

Anyway, back to the topic at hand. One of the interesting things I noticed at the podcast directory is that some of the larger news corporations and broadcasters are starting to get in on the action, not least of which is the BBC. I remember, quite some time ago now, I sent an e-mail to someone at the Beeb imploring them to make their shows available for download, rather then just streams on the website. Maybe someone over there listened. Anyway, looking forward a few months it would not surprise me if we started seeing more content from big sources being made available.

One of the best things about podcasting in its current state is that it is free. I fear that as more mainstream broadcasters get in on the action, we will start to see charges being made for the downloads. It is clear that this could be implemented at the flick of a switch on iTunes, as the whole Podcast directory is integrated into the current infrastructure of the iTunes Music Store. Quite what effect this would have I am not sure. One thing I do know is that if someone gets greedy, it will kill the momentum in growth we are seeing at the moment. At the same time however, it may mean we start to see some real top quality programs being made available.

If we assume that at some point we will start paying for certain podcasts, the question is then; will this be an a la carte payment scheme as we see currently in the iTMS, or will the long fabled feature of a subscription model rear its head? It opens up an intriguing series of possibilities.

First, it could be that there will be a variety of models employed. Maybe there will be a podcast only subscription fee, leaving the music side of things as they are today. Maybe, there will be a tiered subscription model, with an option to include an all you can eat music service as well as a podcast only model. Or it could be that the podcasters will be free to set their own pricing, some remaining free, some charging varying amounts, probably depending on the quality of the content.

There is one possibility which i find much more interesting that all of these however. We might see a hybrid version of ‘music radio’ and an all you can eat subscription model of music downloads. One of the greatest arguments against subscription models is that there is just no point in having that much choice. You know what you like, but it would take forever to soft through the million or so songs to actually find good songs, and most people do not have that kind of time. But what if you have BBC Radio 1 DJs running a daily or weekly show, where they essentially build a playlist which then becomes their radio show? You subscribe to it as a podcast, but the twist is as you are listening, you find a song you like and you then pay for the permanent download. Many people used to find what music they liked by listening to the radio, this way it is made very easy to then obtain the music you like, while someone else does the hard work finding the gems in the million song online catalogues.

Now it may be that some kind of system already exists in the subscription stores, which is similar to this concept. I wouldn’t know. I have never used one because none are Mac compatible. I also remember hearing rumors that people were thinking of implementing a system like this into digital radio. But you can bet that Apple’s implementation would be so elegant it would put any other to shame. Plus it would all be iPod compatible, and quite frankly if its not, what’s the point in it existing?

I see an interesting future in podcasting, and I see no reason why in time it could not eventually supplant radio. It won’t be for a while yet however. All this can only serve to increase the foothold iPod has in the market, making it an ever more compelling product.

Does Apple Need To License Fairplay?

I don’t mean this question in the context of, ‘if Apple doesn’t license then they will die’. I mean, does Apple need to license Fairplay, or is there another way? The argument goes that, if Apple keeps itself in a corner refusing to play with other vendors, with time they will inevitably shed market share until they are a bit player just as happened with the iPod’s big brother the Mac.

But the idea that came to me is, why can’t they repeat the process they went through with the ‘Apple iPod from HP’, but include their own software as well. The idea here is to allow companies like Dixons, Tesco etc to have their own storefront which open in iTunes, and then pay them the amount they pay out to affiliates for each song sold through ‘their’ store. The companies could also have their own brand iPods for sale, giving them a complete digital music solution with almost no financial risk.

How this could be implemented is an interesting question. One possibility is to allow the already web based iTMS run from within the relevant companies websites, rather than tie it to iTunes. Some might say this is a bad idea because it would reduce the number of iTunes downloads (and therefore Quicktime). This is not the case however, because as soon as someone bought a song they would have to download it anyway, and to take the song with them again, they would need iTunes for their iPod.

A second option is to have the iTMS remain within iTunes itself, but allow a certain amount of branding to occur on the software itself. For example when you click on iTMS you could get a cover screen saying the “iTunes Music Store from xxxxxx”. Then click through into to store. You could even cede some of the design process of the store itself to the managing company.

A third option is the give complete control of the store to the company running it, with the exception that the links to the music being downloaded are to Apple’s server farms. I guess this is very similar to how many of the stores popping up today are being built on Loudeye, or OD2 or whatever its called.

I don’t really see a downside for Apple in any of these circumstances, especially the latter one. If someone comes up with a naff looking design from within iTunes it could reflect badly on the slick image built by Apple. But if they are running a store which has no brand association with Apple (apart from the iPod, which Apple would remain control of), then surely this could only be good for Apple.

I would ramble for a bit, but it was just announced that London just won the Olympic bid, so I’m going to go and celebrate now. And I would like to give a big Churchill style V sign to Chirac, and let him know that the best country won. The French are an ignorant country who lost the bid because of their own arrogance. Commiserations to all the other countries who lost, especially the NY bid.