Tim Coughlin's Blog

Apple Dropping Hardware? No. (A response to Allan Warner @ Geek.com)

I’m feeling very relaxed today. I just got back from a weeks holiday which I have to say was very much needed, plus I got a killer tan which is always nice. Anyway, I was just scanning through today’s news and noticed an article by Allan Warner over at Geek.com. I’m not going to attack this like I did those two comments in my last piece. But I am going to have to say that I think Allan is wrong. No bones about it, just flat out wrong. I’m sure he doesn’t think that he is. I’m sure he thinks that I’m just another mac zealot, two bit blogger who thinks he knows more than he really does. But this is one of those topics that crops up again and again, and those who make the ‘software’ claims seem to be missing the big picture.

The first question Allan asks is, “Should you purchase a Macintosh with a PowerPC microprocessor between now and when the switchover is final?”. His answer is yes, and I quite agree with him on this. The next generation of OSX, Leopard, will be released at the end of 2006 and will be compatible with both PPC and x86 offerings. I expect the next iteration of OSX after that to present itself mid to late 2008, though this is pure speculation. This too will almost certainly support both architectures given the last PPC offering will roll off the production lines in 2007. So I would expect full current software support from Apple, and therefore other developers, until well into 2010. Most people buying macs will be on an upgrade cycle of around 3 years, and those that aren’t will probably never know there was a transition in the first place. Given this, there is no rational reason not to recommend people buy a Mac whenever they want. Most likely, they will see the transition as seamless, just like Apple wants. They will never really know anything changed anyway.

The second question is where it all goes wrong however. Allan asks, “Will Apple still be selling Macs in, say, 2008?”. His answer is that he doubts it. Hmmm. First he says that Apple will pull out of the desktop business, and possibly even the laptop business. Is this seriously likely to happen in the next 3 years? Especially given that Apple’s dominant market share are in areas where the power and screen sizes afforded by desktops are critical. Is video editing going to be done on Powerbooks in future, I think not. Well unless Apple releases a 30” Powerbook in the future. Plus, I can’t see Apple transitioning to Intel hardware, then dumping it within the year. Seems like a waste of R&D money to me!

Next Allan says that OSX will run on any off the shelf Intel hardware, irrespective of any efforts Apple makes to stop this, and they most certainly will. I have no doubt that some ‘Geek’ in his basement will be able to crack any preventative measures that Apple employs. But are his parents going to be able to? And are businesses likely to use a ‘crack’ in order that they can change their PCs to OSX? The answer is no. Even if it is possible, the majority of people will never know how, nor will they even know its possible in the first place. Anyone who thinks otherwise, is naïve.

To become a software only company is also a very unattractive economic proposal. Apple makes its money off hardware sales. Its hardware often has high margins, hovering around the 20% mark on average. On some items it makes more and on some less. Nonetheless this is much more than most, if not all, of the commodity hardware makers. While it is true that Apple also makes a lot of high margin software for specialist industries, it sells very little of this to the consumer market. If Apple wants to grow as a company, its the consumer market it knows it needs to go after. This is proved by the release of the Mac mini. So an argument based on the fact that Apple can ditch hardware and keep going on sales of its pro software is clearly wrong. iLife sales are not going to carry the company, I can assure you.

Allan’s next paragraph is amusing, because it states, “Apple will sell computers as long as it can earn a very good return.” Why is it that this situation, which currently exists, is going to change because of a move to Intel processors? Assuming that the move is as smooth as I expect it will be, no CONSUMER is ever going to know a switch was made in the first place. The same people as before are going to be coming through the doors, because they love Apple’s hardware design and the strength and stability of OSX on top of this. The only conceivable effect on an Intel shift ,is that some more people might be coming through the door buying Macs, because now they can install Linux and/or Windows on the machines as well. Oh look, now Apple is making even more cash on hardware sales, irrespective of any potential for future software sales.

Then Allan makes one of the commonest mistakes I see written. He says, “However, soon it [Apple] will compete with the Dells, Gateways, and Lenovos of the world, which sell commodity computers.” A change to Intel chips IN NO WAY means that Apple is now in competition with the commodity PC makers any more than it ever was. Its loyal customer base, though it may flux from time to time, will remain as it is today. Where the game becomes interesting, is when consumers realise they can buy a Mac, run Windows and/or its applications on it, and enjoy the stability that OSX affords on top of all this. The consequence of this is that Apple gobbles up the executive PC market, today held by companies such as Sony, and probably takes some of the business away from the commodity makers too, when consumers realise the value of owning the Mac over any other computer.

I could go on and on about this, but I have only one more comment to make, which could possibly be the most important factor at play. Apple is Steve Jobs’ company. Steve Jobs is a hardware guy, and always has been. As long as he is in control it is almost inconceivable that Apple would ever transition into a software only company. Who would want them to anyway? I love the hardware I buy from Apple. Without it, I would struggle to find anything I even wanted to buy at all, whether I could install OSX on it or not.

Two of the Stupidest Comments About the Apple - Intel Deal, Ever.

I was surfing the forums over at www.macdailynews.com and while browsing away I read a couple of comments responding to the MacIntel deal, one of which shows a total lack of knowledge and the other is so irritatingly incorrect it’s keeping me awake. No seriously, I read it at 23:00 and its now 2:00 in the morning, and unless I write this now, I’m not going to sleep tonight. I hope that the authors themselves, or anyone who agrees with them reads this, so that they can stop spreading total crap on forum message boards.

The first comment reads like this,
“Customers don´t want to have to buy new software and hardware every two years...”,
courtesy of a character called ‘Handsdown’. OK. So what is this meant to mean exactly, that because Apple is shifting to Intel processors we are all going to have to chuck our current hardware? Im going to help you out here: No, it doesn’t. First, lets assume that you have just bought a brand new Mac today (lucky hypothetical bugger that you are). I assume what our friend here thinks, is that because Apple’s shift to Intel will be completed by 2007, this computer will be obsolete by then and that any software coming out after that date will then require an Intel Mac, hence “every two years”. The obvious shootdown to this stupid logic would be to point out that software is going to be written in universal binaries that support both the PPC and x86 platforms for years to come. Why wouldn’t it, its a checkbox option in XCode for Gods sake. But ignoring this point for a second, did ‘Handsdown’ seriously think that overnight, software developers would drop support for 99% of their market? Most of the Macs in use in 2007 are going to be PPC, and will prbably be the majority for a long time to come. Is it likely that software developers are going refuse to sell their software to these people? Well if they do, it’s their funeral.

The second comment, and it pains me to read it again now, is in fact a response to the first comment above. The little gem reads,
“Agreed, especially now that it'll be the same chips as in a Dell. Apple will put commodity hardware in a fancy case and charge a premium for it. Wintel users will continue to scoff as they will still have to buy in to proprietary Apple hardware to run OS X. This is going nowhere”.
We have someone called ‘Macintels’ to thank for this one. I’m going to break this one down in stages to analyse the stupidity step by step.
First, yes Intel do make chips for Dell, that is correct. Does anyone care? No. Firstly, we have no confirmation on what chip the first Macs will be shipping with anyway. It may be one of Intel’s new processors which will appear in the Mac first as a showcase. It may even be specifically designed for the Mac, (allowing Intel to trash all the useless CISC relics its forced to tac onto its chips, and create something much more slick) with Dell and the Intel crowd wishing they could join the party. Secondly, its only a processor, and whatever computer it is in, its what it processes that matters (ie Dells process Windows, Macs process OSX).
The next ‘point’ is that somehow this is going to lead to Apple putting out “commodity hardware”. How is this so? I find it hard to believe that Apple is going to stop designing its own boards, but even if it does, provided the new MacIntels works like the Powerbook I’m writing this on, what do I care what’s inside? And yes this Powerbook does have a “fancy case” which I probably paid a “premium” for. But why would I mind this, because its clear for all to see that my Aluminium case with immaculate build quality and fantastic durability (it looks like the day I bought it) COST MORE to manufacture in the first place, than Dells oh so fetching black plastic (which is cracked or broken within a year of purchase). And the fact my Powerbook is so well built, etc precludes it from being commodity hardware in the first place. (I’m ignoring of course that this joker is wrong about Apple’s hardware costing more than a comparative Dell in the first place anyway).
Next, apparently us Mac users are the butt of some joke that only Windows users get. When oh when will people learn that part of the reason the Mac is so superior, is that Apple control the whole widget. Its NOT a bad thing. And quite frankly given that Apple makes the BEST hardware in the industry anyway, why am I supposed to be upset about being ‘locked in’? Even if Apple hardware ran only Windows, and OSX never existed, I would still be buying their computers for the build quality. And the fact that they make OSX just makes the whole package doubly more appealing.
Finally we hear “its all going nowhere”. Right. Hmmmm. So Apple shifting to Intel because IBM couldn’t deliver faster or cooler chips (and tried to shaft Apple for more money) is standing still is it? This deal will result in faster Macs and much better Laptops with better battery life and cooler chips, not to mention that I’d guess we will be seeing some implementation of WiMAX sooner than most in the industry. Yep, its all going nowhere. There will be the potential for droves of switchers because for the first time Windows applications will run on Macs at full speed. Thats clearly not a step forward either. I could go on, but I’m too tired, but there are many many more reasons why this is a step forward, obviously all elusive to the joker who wrote the post.

Well, thats my rant over. To be honest this is probably an over reaction. But its so annoying when ignorant people post things to try and spread FUD. Gets right up my nose. Anyway, I’m going to bed now. I’ll have a more constructive post ready to put up soon.

Why is the Intel Transition Taking so Long?

Many people have been speculating as to why it is going to take Apple over two years to transition its whole line of Macs over to Intel’s processors. Ostensibly the reason would be to give software developers time to port their applications over, but there are a number of other things at work in the background preventing an immediate switch.

The first thing to say is that most software is not going to take a year to transition over. Reading around, and looking at comments from developers it would seem that most who have been using X Code, and Cocoa will barely feel the shift. Interestingly, even those using Code Warrior and others haven’t been finding the transitions as painful as many predicted. So, the question still stands, why is it going to take so long to shift to Intel and x86? Well, looking at the core markets Apple stands in, including Audio and Video, many applications use Altivec. This is one of the main reasons for a long transition time, as developers using Altivec to speed up their applications are going to have their work cut out for them making the transition, as by taking Intel on board, Altivec is essentially dead. Even Rosetta will not be able to help bridge the gap, as it will only ‘emulate’ a G3 processor. Any application that requires a G4 and G5 will need to be fully ported.

Second, look at the processors Intel has available at the moment. The developer kits are shipping the Pentium 4, a chip which many consider outdated (including myself). Apple are clearly waiting for better things on Intel’s roadmap to crop up. I hope dearly that Intel are able to deliver on their promises, or this move could prove fatal for Apple. This goes some way to explaining why Apple would transition their lower spec computers first, as waiting until 2007 for the PowerMac, will presumably allow a better chip to be integrated at launch.

The last reason is that Apple needs to clear their current inventory, and fulfill its contractual obligations to the parts suppliers which will become obsolete with the Intel shift. There will be major internal changes to Macs in the Intel shift, making current components useless to Apple. I expect much of the motherboard, and internal components such as WiFi will be handled by Intel, allowing costs to be brought down.

What do you think, are there any other reasons why its going to take Apple 2 years to make this historic transition?

Review of PocketMac Pro 3.5 (Sync PocketPC with OSX)

A couple of weeks ago I went out a bought myself a brand spanking new Orange SPV M2000. I needed it to load up on the excellent medical software from Skyscape, so I have an easy resource to go back to when I’m in clinics and on the wards. I also wanted a phone integrated so I didn’t have to carry one around separately (otherwise I might have considered the new Palm Life Drive). When I bought it, I knew that the supplied software wouldn’t be Mac compatible, and I also knew that I was going to spend time tearing my hair out at having to return to in inconsistencies and irritations that Microsoft integrate into their products as ‘features’. However, in fairness to the SPV, once you learn its quirks, its not bad at his job. The built in WiFi is awesome, when it works, the phone is excellent and overall it runs at a fair speed. I should mention that the built in memory was nowhere near enough, so I loaded up the free slot with 1Gb, and I was ready to go.

Obviously, part of the use of the device would be to have access to all my information on the go, and it was going to to be a pain if I couldn’t get it to sync with my Powerbook. So i had a look on the net, and found there were two main options. The first, ‘The Missing Sync’, I was not sure about. I’m not actually sure why. I think I may have read the odd bad review here and there, but anyway I decided to go with its competitor ‘PocketMac Pro’, recently updated to support Tiger. I paid £24.99 and in a couple of minutes I had the software down on my computer. This first step was painless, and the installation worked without a hitch. Just follow the onscreen instructions and away you go. At a certain point it asked me to connect the device, it detected it fine and mounted the internal storage, the storage card, and a link to the /My Documents file on the device onto my Powerbook’s desktop. So far so good.

The first, and most important thing I wanted to do, was sync my contacts and calendar between the devices. So off I went, dropped the SPV into the USB dock, it saw the device, loaded up PocketMac and synced the two perfectly. Impressive stuff I thought. Very convenient too.

But after this first sync, some problems started developing. Most of them were not big problems I have to say, more minor annoyances. But I haven’t found solutions to them as yet. The first thing is, as you remove the device, none of the drives ‘mounted’ on the desktop disappear. They just stay there getting in the way. Nothing major, but a forebear of the annoyances to come.

When I connected my device again to copy over some work onto the memory card the real fun started. First, the software just ignored the connection. It was only after a reboot that it would recognise my SPV. This process remains erratic and I can’t find a solution (apart from rebooting every time, which quite honestly is a pain in the backside). I got PocketMac to see my SPV again eventually, and a double clicked on the ‘\Storage Card’ link. It opened up fine, which was promising. So I dragged the work folder into the window. It weighed in at about 50Mb and contained a mix of .ppt and .doc files, both supported by the PocketPC OS. The first file started copying, but halfway through the process the progress bar froze. I thought, here we go again. So i moved the spinning beachball up to the Apple logo to force quit. But I couldn’t. PocketMac is the first piece of software in 2 years of OSX use that managed to bring the whole system down forcing me to switch my Powerbook off and on again. I tried the same process again when I was back into OSX and the same thing happened. This ability to copy files using PocketMac has continued to be very eratic, often bringing the whole of OSX down, a real pain. If your looking for this software to aid in the copying of data to your palmtop, look else where. PocketMac just isn’t up to the job.

Never mind, I managed to copy the data over using OSX’s built in Bluetooth file transfer, so no great harm done. Ignoring file transfers, dodgy connections and errant desktop links, the rest of the software package has so far seemed to work OK. One thing I did not realise before starting to use my PocketPC, was that the version of Office it uses, saves files to a special ‘Pocket’ format. One which I couldn’t open on OSX. But included is a handy Reader for Word and Excel documents created on the PocketPC, which can convert these to more compatible formats. I can’t fault this software, it worked flawlessly for me. Admittedly, I haven’t really put it through its paces, but it has yet to fail.

The other two extras included in the package are a mac theme for PocketPC and a Palm Importer tool. The latter I have not used so I can’t comment on it, except to say that it is there, and assuming it works will probably prove very useful to some people. The former is a gimmick, nothing more. I turned it on briefly and didn’t like it, so its up to you whether you think this is added value or not. I don’t.

So would I recommend PocketMac Pro? It depends on what you are looking to use it for, and whether you have a degree of tolerance for imperfection (many mac users, including myself, don’t). If you simply want to keep your calendar and contacts up to date, (and you are prepared to take the risk of a shaky connection system), then I would say this is a good buy. The process worked very well, and I have no reason to think it won’t continue to do so. If, however, you were hoping to use the software to reliably copy data to and from the device, I would think twice. In my experience it is very unstable, and often forces to me switch my powerbook off and on to get it back online. A serious problem I’m sure you’ll agree, especially as you risk loosing data in the process. Finally, I would recommend the ‘PocketPC Office’ importing tools, they are painless to use and do their job well, making for a more well rounded software package. I think that £25 is too much to pay for this software in its current state, but if the problems were ironed out it would become a more reasonable price. Overall, its a useful tool to have if your using a PocketPC device with a Mac, and with some refinements could become invaluable.

If any of you out there have had a different experience please post what you think in the comments section. I realise that the problems I have had may not be universal, and could be related to the device I’m using, or the fact I’m running Tiger etc. Until next time ....

Mactel. The Best Thing to Happen to Apple in a Decade.

Before the WWDC I was in the camp of disbelief about the Intel rumors. Truth is, I hadn’t given it much thought, I just figured that the idea was too outlandish to be true. I mean, Apple has over a decade of development sunk in the PPC architecture. But now the dust is settling it turns out that Mactel is the future. And it might just turn out to be the best thing to happen to our platform in years.

Firstly, why this great turnabout now, when Apple was gaining momentum like it hasn’t seen in years. In short, its all IBM’s fault. The wasters that they are. It would seem they just couldn’t be bothered to create chips for Apple now they are the lapdogs of the dark-side (Microsoft). The G5 roadmap is years behind where it should be, and had Apple stuck with IBM we would have been doomed in the next couple of years to using the slowest hardware in the industry.

And will people please stop claiming that Apple has somehow betrayed us. Anyone who has said this, or says this in future has an IQ slightly below that of a dung beetle. I mean really, is it likely that if Apple didn’t HAVE to make they switch they would. This was done for the benefit of the platform, as we will all see in the years to come. And anyone who has just bought hardware, or is thinking of doing so should not change their mind is response to this news. Apple has stated categorically that they will be running dual development for PPC and x86 until after the release of ‘Leopard’. With the dual binaries being a TICK BOX option in X-code, all software for years to come will be shipped compatible with both platforms, and it seems likely the support will continue until 2010 - 2012. Who is going to be using PPC hardware after 2012? 5%? Less? I don’t see it as a problem and nor should anyone else.

But lets look to the future, which I think looks very interesting. This shift raises many possibilities which I had never considered. Apple is both a hardware, and a software company. They make money from both, so anything which drives sales of either component can only be good. With a shift to x86 there are two ways in which Apple could make progress. The first, which almost certainly won’t come to pass, is that they will port OSX to x86, moving to a more Microsoft like business model, where they sell software to OEM makers and only certain hardware items like the iPod. But the very exciting second possibility is that Apple will allow Windows to run on their computers, or going further Windows apps will run within OSX itself. “So what?”, you might say. Well, you stick a dual core Opteron II in a Mac and suddenly you have a fast system running the world’s most stable OS, with the ability to run all your old Windows apps from within in the OS, or you have both OSes running in parallel, with each utilizing one core. There would be absolutely no reason left, for any user, not to go with the Mac from a software viewpoint.

Many people have postulated that this move is the end of Apple hardware as we know it, and that this move will force Apple to become a software company. As I have said above I don’t think this is part of the plan, and I see this move as doing the exact opposite. Sony make some killer hardware. The software obviously sucks, especially the painfully bad stuff they program in house. But imagine you ship the Powerbooks with the option of Microsoft Windows pre-installed. Sony’s market will be stolen overnight. Will I be buying them? Hell no. But many people WANT Windows on their systems, and with the new Intel hardware all those people have the option of buying Apple’s computers to run their (misguided) choice of software. And why not. Steve has always been all about the hardware. In the development of the NeXT workstation his perfectionism in the hardware was to the point of irrationality. The new Intel deal allows Apple to profit from hardware sales, with the option for buyers to convert to their software at a later date. And mark my words, many of them will.

But what else could be behind this decision? Well a move to Intel allows Apple to beat a path into the elusive business sector, an area they have struggled with up until now. With an x86 Mac mini on offer, businesses can run all their Windows apps, but with the stability of OSX. What business would turn this offer down? Stable, virus free and secure computing, with no immediate financial hit! Not forgetting the mini allows businesses to keep their current monitors, keyboards and mice. All they have to do is wait until their next upgrade cycle comes around, and then trash can any deal they have inked with Dell. I can actually HEAR M. Dell weeping as he realizes that Apple has finally got the ability to slam dunk their core business. And Dell’s plans to expand into the luxury end of the market are already now sterile before inception.

I could go on and on with other potential advantages of this move, not to mention that gaming on the Mac will take a serious boost etc. But for now, I think there is enough brain food above. As always, any comments are very interesting, especially from developers. What do you think? Am I talking rubbish. Has Steve Jobs just killed Apple. I suspect not but many of you disagree with me. Only time will tell! Until next time ...

Intel Inside? Maybe. (A Roundup of Current Thinking)

On Thursday I wrote how quiet the usual rumor mill was being surrounding WWDC this Monday. Well not any more it seems. C|NET, a very reliable source of tech news (/sarcasm), has proclaimed that from 2006 our beloved powerbooks et al will come with an ‘Intel Inside’ sticker squarely in the middle of the case. Before I get started, I will say if there is any truth in this rumor, I hope that Steve refused to allow the invasion of the case sticker if nothing else. God I hate those things.

Before I examine the rumor, I will say that personally I don’t think we will be seeing any shift to x86 for the Apple line any time soon. There are just too many reasons why this does not make sense, ignoring the fact that Intel themselves pretty much stated they did not yet have Apple as a customer only a few days ago, when they went on record as saying they, “would dearly love to have Apple as a customer”. As in, we don’t have them yet, nor have we had them for the last 20 years, and during those 20 years SJ and co. have trashed every chip we release because at the end of the day RISC is the better architecture and we can’t compete with that. You get my drift (if any details are technically incorrect, apologies, I am not a chip expert). But often with these rumors, there is some truth in them, despite the truth being distorted and blown out of all proportion. So what could have sparked this latest round of ‘Mactel’ speculation.

The first, and most likely, explanation is that Apple have been talking to Intel, but about a product other than chips for the desktop and laptop line. One angle is that Apple are pushing ahead to produce the ‘Airport Max’, a variant of WiMax. What form this will take, is open to speculation. It could be that the whole Airport range will be moved over the take advantage of the increased bandwidth. It could be that the technology is needed for the much talked about Airport A/V, something I would dearly love to see arrive come Monday. Maybe the new ‘Mac Tablet’ will integrate the technology, allowing it to become the living room device and remote all in one, kind of like a wireless iPod on steroids with video built in.

Another (very unlikely) possibility is that Apple are going to create their own distribution network. Bear with me. A month or two ago, a couple of outlandish rumors surfaced about Apple launching satellites to give them their own distribution channel, for iTunes music and movies, piped direct to the living room, plus allowing for a new mobile device, or possibly the iPod, to have VoIP and direct access to the iTMS built in. Maybe they could start building their own network with WiMax instead replaceing the cable operators, the phone companies, music stores and the video rental stores. But as I said, I ain’t holding my breath for that one. Seems a touch grandiose, wouldn’t you say.

So WiMax would have to be my front runner, though in what form I can only guess. But there are other possibilities. Intel has chips in the current crop of X-serve RAID. It could be that the deal being struck is merely an extension of this current partnership, making the X-serve an even more killer product. Again, a relatively likely option, based on precedent, not speculation.

But lets allow ourselves to go on a flight of fantasy, and assume for one second that Intel is going to be beating at the heart of every Mac come Monday. Likely, no, but possible, I guess so. The most extreme possibility is that 5 short years after OSX supplanted OS 9, and the Mac platform shifted wholesale to a UNIX core, we are again going to see a seismic shift from the PPC to x86 architecture. The idea, while at first glance seems like the ramblings of a schizophrenic Intel CEO with delusions of grandiosity, is more plausible than at first examination. Because OSX has Darwin at its core, OSX could fairly easily be recompiled to run on the x86 architecture. Hell, during the development stages it was running on plain vanilla Intel boxes, and rumor has it that Apple has an OSX variant sitting in the labs, fully updated, running on Intel as we speak. But even if this is true, which it may well be, we don’t have the full story. Because OSX, as beautiful as it is, is worthless without applications to run on it. It could be argued that Apple has also ported iLife over, but with the thousands of third party application, some of which are only just making it across to OSX in the first place, Apple would be on an uphill struggle to convince those developers to rewrite their code for x86 again.

Say we take another leap of faith, and take it on good grace that this is what Apple will announce tomorrow. Where does this lead us. Well, IF this happens, then I can only see one reason why Apple would do this, and in fact I can only see one path by which Apple could sustain itself at all. Attacking the business sector. Make the Mac mini run OSX x86 Edition, and give it the ability to run Windows programs. On an Intel chip one would imagine that even without Windows optimisation, any Windows software could run at say 80% of its original speed and in many businesses this may not even be noticed as a speed hit to the end user. If I was taking this path, I would have the Mac mini become a separate line entirely. Keep the current lineup as it is, but give business users the option of making the switch to Mac painless, and backwards compatible by INCLUDING x86 into the lineup, but not replacing PPC.

There is one more interesting possibility. It could be that Apple is having Intel start creating its own line of PPC chips, one which Apple can rely on, rather than having to wait an eternity for IBM to deign to make even the most modest of gains in yield or speed. I don’t know how feasible this is given that Apple jointly owns the technology with Motorola and IBM, but it is an interesting twist. Looking at it logically, this could benefit both companies. Apple gets reliable chips, and Intel gets in on PPC after it has been left out in the cold by its oldest ally, Microsoft, with the new X-Box 360 (which some say is the future of Microsoft anyway). And an interesting spinoff to this is that maybe, just maybe, Apple is going to license OSX to some of the major PC manufacturers (HP anyone). We know they have been after Apple to license it, and with Intel producing the chips could this not be the beginning of OSX’s domination of Window’s turf? If Apple kept tight reins on what hardware was allowed the legendary ease of use would not have to suffer. If end users later decided to tinker with the computers, well thats their business not Apple’s.

In conclusion, I don’t know what to think. I do know that this wouldn’t be the first time that pre keynote speculation has run wild, and in the end it all amounts to nothing. And this isn’t the first time we’ve heard this rumor itself either, and its yet to get legs. So I guess the best thing to do is try and forget about everything until tomorrow, when we will learn the truth, and see who ends up with egg on their face. Bye for now.

Whatever Happened to Home Directory on iPod?

A few months ago it was postulated that Apple would add the ability to copy your whole ‘Home Folder’ onto your iPod, but recently any news about this feature has slipped off the radar. When I heard about the feature first I thought it was a great idea so why has it yet to materialize. Well, there are a number of reasons I can see why Apple has viewed this feature either impractical or as yet unwanted.

The first, and most probable reason is that iPod is only about music, and Steve Jobs does not want to dilute the focus of the brand. He said it himself in his now famous quote, “its all about the music, stupid”. When you start adding other features, no matter how useful, the media’s spotlight on the brand will be changed. It could take away some of the ‘hip’ image carefully cultured by the funky dancing silhouettes, and make it seem relatively more geeky.

For the idea to be fully implemented would also probably take more space than can currently be found on todays iPods. For full functionality the iPod would have to basically copy the whole contents of the Hard Drive, or at the very least the home folder and core iLife folders plus all the settings within OSX. Realistically, for this to work for me, I would need a minimum of 60Gb and many others would want up to 100Gb (though its worth mentioning that a 100Gb iPod can’t be far away, the drives are already in the pipeline).

I mentioned in my first post that a bump in the iPod shuffle capacity to 2/4Gb could be a way of giving a basic version of this functionality. The iPod could hold the OSX settings plus the contents of a work folder, and other ‘low storage requirement’ items such as Mail or some iPhoto albums. I can’t see any other good reason for increasing the capacity on the shuffle, apart from offering a product which is radically different from anything else that is on offer, further widening Apple’s lead in the market. Alternatively, it could be simply be that people want the capacity to use the device as a keydrive, and the extra space was not intended for music in the first place. But I digress.

There is one final possibility, which I find the most exciting, and the idea was prompted by a post on the comments board yesterday. It could be that the much rumored tablet will finally make its grand entrance from the labs in Cupertino. Now, in a tablet the idea of a home folder on a portable device comes together in ways that would not be possible on an iPod. I think that if we do see a tablet on Monday, or any time in the near future, it will be running a stripped down version of OSX. I suspect it will have a 60Gb+ HD though I would not like to speculate on any of the other features. When it comes to size I would guess a 10” touch screen would be the optimum, with the size of the rest of the device being dictated by this. Anyway, iBook mini (as I have decided it will be named), being wirelessly enabled would store your music, photos and even some movies. When attached to another mac, the drive mounts with all the data available, and the clever bit, the device shows up as another user on the main computer, especially useful when ‘fast user switching’ is activated. This device further explains why Apple has yet to move into the living room, as this itself is the bridge device we have been waiting for. The wireless connection allows you to stream your music to your HiFi, and if Airport AV arrives, then your photos and videos can be streamed to your TV as well. The stumbling point in this fantasy is that a tablet cannot decode HD, but give it time. For now, it could either act as a remote, with the heavy duty decoding being done by the G5 in the office, or the arrival of integrated H.264 decoder chips may solve the problem. But I digress ... again.

This is all just speculation, and it could be totally wrong. Probably is. In fact, home directory functionality may never make it out of the labs, though I would bet the farm on the fact it does already exist in some form already. But Monday isn’t far away so here’s hoping it won’t be long before were carrying our lives around in our pockets, in whatever form Steve Jobs has designated.

Musings on the iTunes Movie Store

Yesterday I began my foray into blogdom. It felt good to be feeding my opinions into the universe, even if no-one would ever read them. However, I have always had the fortune to be an avid user of macsurfer.com, and so I sent my site over to them and within the hour I was up there and I had 200 hits. Which I have to say felt good, not to mention the fact it enthused me to continue.

So onto todays post. Yesterday I made some predictions about WWDC, looking into the muddy crystal ball that is my mind. I mentioned I thought we would soon have the beginning of Apple’s invasion of the living room, and today I am going to expand on this. The first phase was finalized last year with the completion of the iTunes music store and Airport Express. With these innovations Apple allows us to buy, manage and stream music to anywhere in the house and by controlling the whole widget they have had runaway success. In fact, you can almost hear the ‘imperial march’ from Star Wars playing in the background, as the inevitability of Apple’s market domination continue. Go on, listen hard.

So the next obvious step is to take this template and apply it to movies, the other great entertainment medium (ignoring books, a topic I will discuss further in the future). Microsoft released the media centre PC accompanied by the noise of a wet fart a couple of years ago, and it would be safe to say their impact has been, well, non-existent. This is due to the simple fact that people do not want computers in their living room. Why would anyone, it is inconvenient and ugly, not to mention very expensive. This is why Apple have not made the Mac mini into a media centre, despite the insistence of many fans that this is its purpose.

So how do Apple propose to take on this problem? Well its safe to expect a healthy dose of innovation, with a dollop of good design, and the first step will be the introduction of Airport A/V. This wireless box will act in just the same way as the current Airport, save that there will be the addition of a video out, and possibly the removal of USB and ethernet sockets. When a TV is plugged into the box it appears as a display in the preferences pane and video can be outputted to it using Quicktime, iTunes and hopefully any of the other video players such as VLC and mPlayer (though I am not holding my breath on this). This gives all the benefits of a media centre PC but it costs only maybe £100, not £1000! Plus, if you are controlling it from a wireless enabled laptop, you have a ready made remote control.

But along with this, you are going to need content which you can stream to it, and I have a feeling that music videos just aren’t going to cut it. So the second part of the puzzle is the iTunes Movie/Video/TV Store. All the components are in place. There is an installed base of around 30 million users and the player can already support video, you just need the content to make available.

I’m going to make a couple of predictions about how this content is going to be presented. Will I be right? Well no I won’t, but this is my best guess. First, I think that the system will support both permanent downloads and streaming, as I think iTMS will do sometime in the near future. But the problem being faced by the streaming video model, is how do you push the data down to computers fast enough for people to watch what they want, when they want? The answer lies with the way TiVo works at the moment, well kind of. You will tell the software what shows you like listening to, then you will allocate a certain amount of disc space, then whenever the computer is idle it will download all the content you could ever want to watch. And this model will be an eat all you can model, with a monthly fee. Then, once you have seen the show you will have the option to own it permanently, at extra cost of course, or just scrap it making space for more shows. This way, you can build up a virtual ‘box set’ without having to wait the seemingly infinite amount of time for it to be officially released.

Second, as I mentioned yesterday, and have alluded to above, I don’t think the killer application here is movies. With movies you will always feel the competition of the cinema and the video store. But, with TV shows and more obscure content like indie films, you are onto a winner. The killer aspect of this application is that you do not have to wait for a program to air before you can record it and watch it. It is just there, available whenever you want it, just like going to the video store. You can construct your own channel, with shows programs in any order, and your the boss of it all. With any luck there will be no commercials to contend with either. Of course movies will come later, no doubt with Pixar and Disney being the first, and when they do they will serve to complete the experience and eventually supplant the current cable operators.

The interesting thing here will be if Apple can convince the content providers to license their material at reasonable cost. What would people be willing to pay for an unlimited streaming service? If the content was compelling and up to date, I could see myself paying £20 a month, or around $40 for unlimited access to TV shows, news, sports and movies. What about for permanent downloads? Well, for movies, maybe £8 for new movies, falling to around £4 for older titles. For TV episodes, the maximum would have to be £2 per episode, making a full series worth around £50, though I think this is pushing the boundaries of acceptable pricing.

Well, I think that will do for now. I’m always very interested to hear what you think, so leave any comments at the bottom, or feel free to e-mail me with you ideas and it I have a response I will post it with my response. I’m not sure what I will be covering next, but something will no doubt come to me over the course of the day. And don’t forget, only 3 days to go until WWDC!

Welcome and WWDC Predictions

Welcome to my first foray into the world of blogging. I’ve been reading some excellently written blogs for months now, and decided it was time for me to throw in my two cents (or pence here in the UK). So what will I blog about? Well, I haven’t come to a final decision about that as of yet. Being an avid Apple fan, I will cover interesting news as it comes along. I may throw in bits here and there about films, books or wines I have partaken of recently. And, well, anything else which comes along for which I have an opinion I feel should be let loose into the digital universe.

As most Apple fans will know, its coming towards to beginning of the WWDC, where Steve Jobs will don the sacred black polo neck and blue jeans, and reveal to the converted the latest technological delights we will be piling onto our already groaning credit cards next.

Traditionally, there are hundreds of articles from those “in the know” as to what we can expect this year, flying around the rumor mill. However, the relative lack this year has surprised me. So where are the usual pundits? Have they vanished because there will be nothing new coming on Monday? In a word, ‘no’. The apparent dearth of information could be because everyone is scared witless that if they so much as make a peep about an upcoming product, Apple’s legal department will reign hellfire and brimstone down upon then. Or it could be that everyone is bored of making predictions and then eating their hat after the event. Whatever the cause, I thought as my first contribution to this blog I would make some of my own predictions, in the full knowledge they will be as believable as the latest shipping date for ‘Longhorn’.

Over the last few weeks we have seen updates to a number of products across the Apple hardware lineup, so the scope for further updates on these items is limited. However, powerbook updates have been neglected for some time, and the line is starting to look a bit dated. I’m writing this on a Rev. A 12” Powerbook, which I bought some two years ago, and quite frankly, apart from a speed boost and the odd component upgrade not much has changed over the years. Leading to prediction number one...

1) New Powerbooks ... but not G5s, well not yet anyway. You see, unless Apple has devised some way of liquid cooling a laptop there is no way the G5 will feature this years laptops (Unless there is some secret tie-in with Bosch to offer a handy integrated fan assisted oven to use up all the extra heat). I would predict a change of casing and that spiffy new dual core Motorola processor, running at say 2 Ghz. I think the form factors will stay the same, no widescreen 13” powerbooks for example. The screens will be bumped up to support HD however, and the graphics cards will need a nudge allowing H.264 to be supported across the line.

2) New Airport Express A/V ... an old favorite on the rumor mill, but I see the pieces coming together for the intro of this ground breaking product. First, Apple add video to the iTunes music store. You can stream the music to your Hi-Fi, but your gonna need somewhere to stream that video too! Second, Apple have been talking to Intel about wireless technology, (NOT a move to x84, god i wish that rumor would die). I’m not going to guess whether this new Airport will integrate WiMAX or 802.11n but either could be used for this application. However, with this new product I hope, no, actually I beg, that they allow it to stream from all video applications, and not just quicktime and iTunes. Otherwise, 90% of its use will evaporate immediately.

3) iTunes Movies Store ... not so sure about this one yet. But, I think it my appear as a product in its infancy this time around. Let me explain. We would have heard if Apple had negotiated deals with the big movie studios, and as far as I know we haven’t. I think its possible we will see a store selling Pixar and Disney titles to test the water. Soon after it will start signing up independent studios and directors, and then shortly after that the big studios will fall into line. However, in the future I don’t think that movies are going to be the big news in video downloads, I think its going to be TV series. Bear with me here. You tell the software what you want available to watch each week. You tell it whether you want it rented, or if you want it to keep, and then when your computer is idle it downloads everything into a folder ready to be watched whenever you’re ready. Its basically TiVo, or other similar services rehashed as an online download store, but rather than recording things when they come along you have the option of downloading and watching anything you want at any time, you don’t have to wait for it to come on TV. But I digress, I will make this the topic of conversation another day.

4) A Tablet Mac ... this one is a controversial one. But I think this market has been wide open for a killer device of this nature for some time. Picture this, an A5 sized mac, no optical drive but running the full version of OSX. Input is from a stylus (a decent pen sized one, not the usual tooth pick), or from bluetooth keyboard and mouse. And the price is about £200 less than the iBook, say around the £400 mark. This device would be the must have for students, and many business users alike. Yes, yes I know this is what the current breed of tablets does, and they have all fallen flat on their face. But the difference here is size. To be able to take notes in lectures, while having access to the online university material and the internet wirelessly, has to be a killer app.

5) 2Gb iPod Shuffle ... I base this one only on rumour, because they seem quite reliable and have been repeated so many times i’m going to believe them. Is it true, well it could be and there are 2 possibilities as to how it may appear. The first is that it will be exactly the same as the last model, and the primary use for the extra space is not that it will hold more music, but simply it becomes more useful as a key-drive. Second, they will integrate an OLED like that fetching Luxpro mock up does. I’m going to go for the former, but we will see. Now I come to think of it, there are two more possibilities which occur to me. The first, one which I rather like the sound of, is that they will cut the iPod mini in half, making a razor thin version with flash memory. And the last possibility, which I find very intriguing, will become more likely if the rumor about the 4Gb model in August is true. I remember some time ago people were talking about a ‘Home Drive’ on your iPod. What if the new shuffle contained all your settings, plus certain selected folders, your text files, certain iPhoto folders, some music, calendars, contacts and so on. You plug it into the USB 2.0 of any mac and hey presto. Your mac, in your pocket!

Well, i’m gonna stop making predictions now. Mainly because i’m tired and I think I have enough material above to embarrass myself sufficiently come Monday. In my next entry I will expand on some of the ideas above. So for now, goodnight.